Federal By-elections Super-Saturday:
Date: July 28, 2018.
The Division of Braddon covers the north west and west of Tasmania. The cities of Burnie and Devonport are major population centres in the division. Other towns include Currie, Latrobe, Penguin, Queenstown, Rosebery, Smithton, Somerset, Stanley, Strahan, Ulverstone, Waratah, Wynyard and Zeehan.
Braddon was created prior to the 1955 Federal Election and is a particularly volatile and marginal electorate that changes hands very regularly - with the seat usually, but not exclusively, being held by the party presently in government. Usually, incumbent MPs rarely last more than two terms.
Justine Kaey, since 2016. She resigned due to a court ruling indicating that her citizenship status at election was deemed have made her ineligible to sit in parliament.
|Liberal||Brett Whiteley X||26,841||41.50%||−5.36%|
|Labor||Justine Kaey ✓||25,898||40.05%||+2.46%|
|Recreational Fishers||Glen Saltmarsh||3,701||5.72%||+5.72%|
|Liberal Democrats||Joshua Boag||1,380||2.13%||+2.13%|
|Renewable Energy||Clinton Rice||1,343||2.08%||+2.08%|
|Christian Democrats||Graham Hodge||1,151||1.78%||+1.78%|
|Two Party Preferred Result|
|Labor||Justine Kaey ✓||33,759||52.20%||+4.76%|
|Liberal||Brett Whiteley X||30,913||47.80%||−4.76%|
Political Party: Greens.
Jarrod Edwards is an an indigenous land management supervisor.
Political Party: Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party.
Political Party: Independent.
Political Party: Liberal Democrats.
Political Party: Liberal.
Brett Whiteley was the Federal MP for Braddon from the 2013 to 2016 and served as the Government Whip in the House of Representatives from 2015 up until his defeat in 2016. He also previously served in the Tasmanian Parliament, representing the Braddon electorate, from 2002 to 2010.
Political Party: Independent.
Craig Garland is a fisherman. He contested the corresponding state seat of Braddon at the 2018 Tasmanian State Election.
Political Party: Australian People's Party
Political Party: Labor.
Justine Kaey had been the MP for Braddon since the 2016 Federal Election. Before her election, she worked in the television industry with Southern Cross Television and WIN Television in Western Australia before gaining further qualifications from Murdoch University in Environmental Impact Assessment and Environmental Management and has received a Graduate Diploma in Psychology from Monash University. She returned to Tasmania and entered politics as an assistant to then Minister for Environment the Hon Bryan Green MP. She also previously served on the Devonport City Council until the 2-16 Election.
Assessment and prediction:
Labor should be able to hold on in Braddon. It is very rare for governments to gain seats off the opposition on their best day, let alone governments that are on the nose. Furthermore, the Liberal choice of candidate who was defeated at both the state and recently Federal level may not be helpful for the Liberal Party either.
This is also the best area of Tasmania for the Jacqui Lambie Network and potentially other populist candidates and parties. Combined with a declining Greens vote, preferences could very well make the outcome of this election very unpredictable.